Question

When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?

42 comments42

Total Forecasters185

Community Prediction2025-12-31

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2030-01-01

...

2025-05-04 01:38

2025-12-31 22:04

2026-11-19 03:58

3.5%

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

20%

Comments

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Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Six Countries That Could Mediate Possible Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks

Newsweek•Sep 12, 2024

Russia 'Always Open' to Ukraine Peace Talks, Putin Tells China

Newsweek•Sep 13, 2024

Diplomacy Over Ukraine War Is About Weapons More Than Peace Talks

New York Times•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

20%