Question

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

16 comments16

Total Forecasters108

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%

Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?

87%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ForkLeaf

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Stop the Inflammatory Rhetoric. There's No Evidence Egypt Has Violated Its Peace Treaty With Israel

Newsweek•Sep 18, 2024

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The Conversation•Sep 18, 2024

Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Egypt Now

CounterPunch•Sep 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

12%

Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?

87%