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Depending on Ukraine ground forces entering Russia, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

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UA attack

No UA attack

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Candidates		My Prediction		Me
UA attack	annulled

No UA attack	annulled

Authors:

casens

Opened:

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Luhansk People's Republic

Temporarily occupied and uncontrolled territories of Ukraine

Ukrainian Ground Forces

Institute for the Study of War

Ukraine

Crimea

Russia

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

51%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Luhansk People's Republic

Temporarily occupied and uncontrolled territories of Ukraine

Ukrainian Ground Forces

Institute for the Study of War

Ukraine

Crimea

Russia

Russia 'must show it is willing to use nuclear weapons against countries that support Ukraine and CAN hit NATO countries with a tactical nuke without sparking Armageddon'

Daily Mail•Sep 13, 2024

US hints at allowing Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia, enraging Putin

Al Jazeera•Sep 13, 2024

Putin is threatening disaster over Ukraine's long-range missiles — but his past 'red lines' came to nothing

Business Insider•Sep 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

51%