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Anthony
Predictions
790
Comments
3089
Member Since
September 2015
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Questions by Anthony
A Primer on the Metaculus Scoring Rule
1
no comments
0
When will an AI agent be able to win Portal 2 on its first run?
10 Sep 2028
How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?
8.1×10¹⁵ km
When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?
Dec 2045
When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?
>22 Dec 2025
Metaculus capabilities list (obsolete)
7
no comments
0
Prediction microteaming discussion
4
2 comments
2
Metaculus Meta
Metaculus Staffing News
14
4 comments
4
Metaculus Meta
If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?
Ambiguous
Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?
result
No
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