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romeodean
Predictions
290
Comments
18
Member Since
February 2024
Overview
Track Record
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Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by romeodean
How likely do you think it is that overall, the impact of High Level Machine Intelligence will be extremely negative for humanity in the long run?
This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.
71%
chance
How likely do you think it is that overall, the impact of High Level Machine Intelligence will be extremely negative for humanity in the long run?
Annulled
In what year will there will be High Level Machine Intelligence which can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers?
This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.
Jul 2031
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Model Autonomy?
This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.
60%
chance
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?
This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.
65%
chance
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
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41%
chance
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?
This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.
90%
chance
What percentage of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem by December 31st 2025?
This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.
1.24
What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025, in USD billions?
This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.
18.2
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.
76.4
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