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sandman
Predictions
77
Comments
34
Member Since
March 2023
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Track Record
Medals
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Questions
Questions by sandman
Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?
90%
chance
Will an FDA-approved diagnostic test that predicts individual response to longevity interventions be commercially available and covered by insurers by January 1, 2030?
55%
chance
Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?
Embryo gene editing
45.9%
In vitro gametogenesis (IVG)
32.3%
Neither/Other
21.8%
Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?
95%
chance
Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040?
25%
chance
Before March 1, 2026, will Meta settle the lawsuit brought by state attorneys general alleging the platform(s) were designed to foster compulsive use by minors?
60%
chance
When will the first privately governed charter city have 10,000 residents?
Apr 2060
What percentage of their January 2024 search interest will these longevity interventions retain in January 2030?
Epigenetic reprogramming
99.7
Ozempic
96.5
Senolytics
92
and 3 others
Will equipment to make fuel from CO2 and water be deployed on Mars and make at least 1 ton per week of rocket fuel (methane) before 2030?
3%
chance
In what year will the first private citizen become a permanent off-Earth resident?
Apr 2064
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