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SimonM
Predictions
66917
Comments
1111
Member Since
March 2020
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Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
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Questions
Questions by SimonM
Will the next James Bond be female?
This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.
6%
chance
How many deaths from terrorism in Afghanistan in 2021?
This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.
7009
How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2025?
22.6k
deaths
How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?
result
11.526k
How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?
result
22.847k
Will there be a European Army before 2032?
38%
chance
Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?
This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.
78%
chance
Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?
result
Yes
Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?
This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.
64%
chance
Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?
This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.
66%
chance
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