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Matthew_Barnett
Predictions
1505
Comments
646
Member Since
November 2018
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Track Record
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Overview
Track Record
Medals
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Questions
Questions by Matthew_Barnett
When will a reliable and general household robot be developed?
Jul 2032
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?
result
No
How many registrations will there be for the FY2024 H1B cap lottery?
result
780.884k
What credence will the US government assign to existential risk from AI in the next 30 years before 2025?
Ambiguous
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
1.5×10²⁹
FLOP
When will most Americans personally know someone who has dated an AI?
Sep 2032
How many months in prison will Avraham Eisenberg be sentenced to before 2030?
111
months
Will Avraham Eisenberg be convicted of a felony in the United States before 2028?
result
Yes
When will the first fully automated McDonalds open in the United States?
01 Sep 2029
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2030?
300
months
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