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ignorance.prior
Predictions
122
Comments
152
Member Since
June 2016
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by ignorance.prior
How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?
result
3.664292M
What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?
result
18.59193k
What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?
result
0.004156
Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?
31.9%
chance
Will the FDA authorise the use of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 by the end of 2020?
Ambiguous
Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?
result
Yes
Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?
result
No
If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?
result
5.673571M
For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?
result
More than 60
Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?
result
No
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