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WilliamKiely
Predictions
1491
Comments
331
Member Since
February 2016
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Questions by WilliamKiely
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?
193 c
Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?
result
No
Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?
result
Yes
What will be the largest real Gross World Product for the period 2020 through 1,000,002,020, in trillions of 2020 US$?
4.1×10¹⁶
trillion 2020 US$
What will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 US$?
<1×10¹⁵
trillion 2020 US$
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?
0.108 c
What will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 USD?
1.09M
trillion $
What will real Gross World Product be in 2100, in trillions of 2020 USD?
396k
trillion $
By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?
result
54.944k
Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?
33%
chance
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