The Respiratory Outlook 2024/25 develops forecasts on the trajectory of influenza, COVID-19, and RSV for this respiratory disease season. Building on the Respiratory Outlook 2023/24, the 2024/25 Outlook supports preparedness and provides a transparent hub for predictions of disease burden.
Thank you for sharing your forecasts and rationales: Your efforts are delivered to public health officials to bolster innovative approaches to disease forecasting and strengthen preparation.
This project is supported by the National Science Foundation under Award No. 2438211. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this project are those of Metaculus and our forecasters, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
Structure
This initiative features questions on the trajectories and peaks of COVID-19, influenza, and RSV, as well as relevant questions on vaccine uptake and the potential for new variants.
The program end date is July 1, 2026, to accommodate some questions that depend on studies analyzing the 2024/25 respiratory disease season. Medals will be awarded based on the questions that have resolved by that date. The program includes some longer term questions aimed at providing valuable information to public-health decision-makers which will resolve afterwar July 1, 2026, but will not count toward medals. Learn more about scoring.
Eight Metaculus Pro Forecasters are participating and will share their predictions and rationales with the community.
Federal funding is anticipated for this project. Federal rules prohibit us from offering a prize pool. However, we hope this constraint helps to underscore the importance of the initiative, and we do intend to recognize top forecasters for their valuable contributions.