The Market Pulse Challenge is a 3-month tournament inviting forecasters to predict market trends and company performance, testing their skills against measurable real-world outcomes. By focusing on rolling questions, the tournament aims to build a structured, consistent dataset that clearly tracks forecasting accuracy over time. This dataset will serve as a valuable resource, connecting forecasting insights directly into financial decision-making.

Join us in turning financial intuition into reliable predictions, refining your forecasting skills, and contributing to an actionable record of market forecasts.

Tournament Details

This tournament features a $7,500 prize pool for accurate forecasts. All questions will resolve on or before July 1, and winners will be announced shortly thereafter. This tournament will be scored using our usual time-averaged Peer scores. Learn more about forecast scoring.

There will be nine question groups launched in this tournament, each containing a number of subquestions, for a total of 45 questions in the tournament. New questions and subquestions will launch periodically during the tournament, so make sure to click the ‘Follow’ button to get notified when a new question launches.

The first wave with 12 questions is open now. Find the launch schedule for the rest of the questions below:

Launch date	Number of questions	Question duration
April 4	5	14 days
April 18	5	14 days
April 25	4	66 days
May 2	5	14 days
May 6	4	25 days
May 16	5	14 days
May 30	5	14 days

Bot Participation Rules

You are welcome to enter this competition using a forecasting bot account, but you can only enter the competition once, either as a bot or as a normal user. Create a bot account here, and visit the AI Benchmark contest page for templates and support building your bot.

Review Metaculus's Terms of Use, including important rules for contest participation.

See if you can demonstrate repeatable accuracy on decision-relevant data by getting started below.

Market Pulse Challenge

Questions