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Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?
20%
45
62 comments
62
When will Kim Jong Un no longer be the leader of North Korea?
2046-08-14
6
3 comments
3
Will Russian territory be reduced by at least 1% before 2040?
32%
10
17 comments
17
Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates?
2030
26%
2025
3%
2024
No
10
20 comments
20
When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?
2042-03-17
9
8 comments
8
Will the UK or France veto a United Nations Security Council resolution before 2051?
33%
2
5 comments
5
When will Palestine become a full UN member state?
2044-04-30
12
8 comments
8
How many United Nations Security Council Resolutions concerning Syria will be vetoed by Russia between 22 April 2018 and 22 August 2018?
Resolved :
0
2
1 comment
1
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?
Resolved :
No
5
10 comments
10
Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?
Resolved :
No
12
18 comments
18
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