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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?

resultNo

Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022?

Sudanresult: 4.476311M
Azerbaijanresult: 706.532k
Sri Lankaresult: 171.791k
and 4 others

Will three of the listed countries ratify an agreement to form the East African Federation before 2030?

7%chance

East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022?

Ugandaresult: No
Djiboutiresult: No
Kenyaresult: No
and 4 others

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Syria81%
Haiti70%
Mali61%
and 70 others

Will an East African Federation exist and govern before 2040?

14%chance

Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World

2
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?

resultYes