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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

5%chance

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

48%chance

When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?

result27 Jul 2021 06:00

If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?

80%chance

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

50%chance

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

60%chance

Reducing Nuclear Risk Through Improved US-China Relations

13
2 comments2
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%chance

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

56%chance

Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?

resultNo