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Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?
2035
4%
2030
2%
3
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?
10%
3
4 comments
4
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
1%
1%
US-China war before 2035?
7%
7%
2
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
25%
25%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
30%
30%
1
4 comments
4
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?
Resolved :
No
38
34 comments
34
Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?
Resolved :
No
38
108 comments
108
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?
Resolved :
Yes
4
6 comments
6
The Taiwan Tinderbox