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Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2022, had a median age above 30?
80%
9
23 comments
23
Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?
85%
5
4 comments
4
An Advancing Islamic State in Nigeria?
16
4 comments
4
The Expansion of Executive War Powers
6
3 comments
3
Metaculus Journal
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
United States
33.4%
Latvia
32%
Poland
30%
9 others
8
8 comments
8
Will the US and the EU (or one of its member states) cut diplomatic ties before 2051?
5%
5
12 comments
12
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?
Libya
Feb 6, 2029
Myanmar
Jan 12, 2029
South Sudan
Aug 8, 2023
3 others
7
10 comments
10
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
70%
Mali
68%
Libya
60%
70 others
19
59 comments
59
Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World
2
no comments
0
Metaculus Journal
Will Israel lose control over the Golan Heights before 2030?
4%
8
8 comments
8
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