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Numerical question updates
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Metaculus Meta
Most useful forecastint tools/data sources
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Metaculus Meta
Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?
4.05
28
20 comments
20
Fermi Paradox Series
Ideas for clinical trials contest
17
15 comments
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What distributions would you like?
8
28 comments
28
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New feature: Multi-modal predictions
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Discussion page for the Fermi Paradox question series
13
1 comment
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Fermi Paradox Series
If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?
29%
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AI Technical Benchmarks
How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?
2.56e-1
17
24 comments
24
What will be the correlation of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate from 2022 to 2031?
2.9e-2
2
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