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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?

result2932

Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2022, had a median age above 30?

80%chance

How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023?

result16

Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?

resultYes

Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022?

Sudanresult: 4.476311M
Azerbaijanresult: 706.532k
Sri Lankaresult: 171.791k
and 4 others

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

Sudanresult: Yes
Niger67%
Haiti62%
and 52 others

Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World

2
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Birth Rates in the Modern World

4
16 comments16
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Singapore86%
Taiwan72%
Vietnam70%
and 9 others

Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka?

Anura Kumara Dissanayakeresult: Yes
Sajith Premadasaresult: No
Ranil Wickremesingheresult: No
and 2 others