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Are we in a simulated reality? Part II

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

15%chance

When will programs write programs for us?

result07 Jul 2021

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

24 Feb 2028

Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

63%chance

When will PHP die?

Mar 2040

What distributions would you like?

9
28 comments28
Metaculus Meta

What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?

result37.96

Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?

47.2%chance

Platform update thread

14
102 comments102
Metaculus Meta

Introducing Ergo

16
6 comments6
Metaculus Meta