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When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?
2028-01-12
91
71 comments
71
AGI Outcomes
When will PHP die?
2040-03-23
10
13 comments
13
What distributions would you like?
8
28 comments
28
Metaculus Meta
Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?
47%
5
no comments
0
Platform update thread
14
99 comments
99
Metaculus Meta
Introducing Ergo
16
5 comments
5
Metaculus Meta
When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?
2026-05-13
10
8 comments
8
AI Technical Benchmarks
Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?
85%
14
8 comments
8
AI Technical Benchmarks
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2032-10-28
171
470 comments
470
AGI Outcomes
What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?
48.7
7
5 comments
5
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
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