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Most useful forecastint tools/data sources
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33 comments
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Metaculus Meta
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?
3%
12
9 comments
9
Ragnarök Series
Ragnarök Series—results so far
31
34 comments
34
Ragnarök Series
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
50%
31
98 comments
98
AGI Outcomes
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
5.73
20
4 comments
4
Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?
20%
45
62 comments
62
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due "other risks"?
21%
3
10 comments
10
Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
19%
6
5 comments
5
How many high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)?
4.77
9
4 comments
4
Biosecurity Tournament
🔎 Discover More With New Filter & Sort Tools
23
4 comments
4
Metaculus Meta
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