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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?

resultNo

How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?

result2419

Will three of the listed countries ratify an agreement to form the East African Federation before 2030?

7%chance

East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022?

Ugandaresult: No
Djiboutiresult: No
Kenyaresult: No
and 4 others

Will an East African Federation exist and govern before 2040?

14%chance

Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World

2
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World

9
9 comments9
Metaculus Journal Archives

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda?

Paul Kagameresult: Yes
Frank Habinezaresult: No
Another outcomeresult: No