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Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
35%
38
40 comments
40
Ragnarรถk Series
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?
83%
19
17 comments
17
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
5.73
20
4 comments
4
Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?
20%
45
62 comments
62
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.43
14
25 comments
25
AGI Outcomes
50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?
1.21k
17
19 comments
19
AGI Outcomes
The Patchwork Future: An Exercise in Interpolation
5
no comments
0
AI Progress Essay Contest
AI Safety โฉ AI/DL Research
10
7 comments
7
AI Progress Essay Contest
Introducing the Metaculus Journal Podcast
12
no comments
0
Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?
99%
26
26 comments
26
AI Demonstrations
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