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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
98%
218
147 comments
147
AGI Outcomes
Will RoboCup announce that robots have beaten professional human soccer players before 2050?
55%
34
57 comments
57
AGI Outcomes
Is the human being, as opposed to everything else in nature, an exception to causality? Rephrased: Is the entire universe deterministic?
9
5 comments
5
Most useful forecastint tools/data sources
26
33 comments
33
Metaculus Meta
Predict your true beliefs
12
9 comments
9
Metaculus Meta
By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?
5%
37
60 comments
60
What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?
1.6e17
41
43 comments
43
When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?
2033-08-08
10
8 comments
8
When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?
2026-02-22
17
19 comments
19
AI Demonstrations
Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?
60%
13
56 comments
56
AGI Outcomes
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