Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
fetch failed
Try again
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
🗳️
US Elections
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?
5%
23
23 comments
23
Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?
59%
4
5 comments
5
The Promise and Impact of the Next Generation of Weight Loss Drugs
19
1 comment
1
Metaculus Journal
Forecasting Coronavirus Variant Omicron
17
17 comments
17
condition
Will there be a Run on the Banks before 2031?
if yes
if no
One Top 20 Public Corp Bankrupt Before 2025
60%
60%
One Top 20 Public Corp Bankrupt Before 2025
6%
6%
-1
no comments
0
When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?
Resolved :
Jun 18, 2021
11
22 comments
22
Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?
Resolved :
Yes
23
26 comments
26
What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
8
11 comments
11
What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?
Resolved :
828k
5
10 comments
10
What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?
Resolved :
54.6
5
6 comments
6
Load more