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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

By 2017, will research definitively show Zika virus to be the direct cause of microencephaly in developing humans?

resultYes

Zapping Zika #1: First vaccine trials by January 2017?

resultYes

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?

resultNo

When will the first baby be born away from Earth?

Dec 2057

When will we see the first live birth from human in vitro gametogenesis?

Sep 2032

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

58%chance

How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?

result1

Polygenic Selection of Embryos

21
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

80%chance

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

54.4%