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What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?
2.56e-3
16
20 comments
20
Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?
51%
14
11 comments
11
When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?
2025-05-07
12
14 comments
14
Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?
13%
17
22 comments
22
AI Technical Benchmarks
If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?
29%
10
22 comments
22
AI Technical Benchmarks
Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?
59%
12
1 comment
1
Before mid-2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?
10k / month
27.8%
30k / month
16%
300k / year
14%
2 others
10
12 comments
12
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?
17%
9
6 comments
6
Will GiveWell fund or recommend grants for the following interventions before January 1, 2027?
Community-Based Maternal and Neonatal
80%
HPV Vaccination to Prevent Cervical Cancer
70%
SMS Reminders for Vaccination
69.8%
16 others
5
5 comments
5
Will faster-than-light communication be possible before 2300?
10%
3
4 comments
4
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