Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
🗳️
US Elections
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?
99%
24
20 comments
20
Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?
15%
8
4 comments
4
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
United States
33.4%
Latvia
32%
Poland
30%
9 others
8
8 comments
8
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
if yes
if no
USA Withdraws From a Mutual Defence Treaty?
26%
26%
USA Withdraws From a Mutual Defence Treaty?
6%
6%
2
2 comments
2
Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?
1%
6
3 comments
3
Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?
97%
17
15 comments
15
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
if yes
if no
US is a NATO Member until 2029?
95%
95%
US is a NATO Member until 2029?
99%
99%
5
12 comments
12
condition
US is a NATO Member until 2029?
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
6%
6%
US-China war before 2035?
9%
9%
4
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?
Resolved :
No
6
2 comments
2
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?
Resolved :
No
20
48 comments
48
Ukraine Conflict
Load more