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by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?

resultNo

To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?

resultNo

When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

Oct 2056

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

2.5%chance

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

10%chance

Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?

Ambiguous

Ragnarök Series—results so far

31
34 comments34
Ragnarök Series

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

53%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

49%chance

Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?

60%chance