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Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

1.5%chance

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

177k
humans

When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?

Mar 2070

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

7223 $

Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?

50%chance

When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, if this occurs by year 2200?

2093

Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?

5%chance

Before 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?

33%chance

Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?

53%chance

Looking ahead to 2050: Charting scenarios without transformative AI

7
3 comments3
AI Progress Essay Contest