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Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
83%
11
6 comments
6
Effective Institutions Project
What will Meta’s yearly spending on Reality Labs be?
2025:
13.8B
9
18 comments
18
Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?
25%
4
14 comments
14
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
5.32
3
3 comments
3
Business of AI
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
19%
6
8 comments
8
Regulation of AI
condition
3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?
if yes
if no
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
2029-08-13
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
2030-04-18
7
no comments
0
Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?
70%
6
7 comments
7
AI Safety
Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?
1%
8
12 comments
12
Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025?
58%
3
4 comments
4
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-07-09
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-01-18
5
no comments
0
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