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In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

resultNo

Will the AI's major professional society take a position on "killer robots"?

resultNo

Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?

resultNo

Will the UN host a meeting in November to continue discussions regarding lethal autonomous weapons?

resultYes

Of the top 10 AI companies, how many will pledge not to develop lethal autonomous weapons?

result2

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

25%chance

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%chance

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8