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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

When will a West Balkan state next join the EU?

01 Apr 2030

When will Serbia recognize Kosovo?

Oct 2042

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

resultNo

When will the following countries have open borders with all Schengen Area members?

00

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

Montenegro96%
North Macedonia87%
Albania82.5%
and 17 others

Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World

2
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?

resultNo
condition

US Iran War Before 2025?

Resolved:No
48 forecasters
if yes
if no

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

45%
45%
Resolved:Annulled

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

20%
20%
5
1 comment1
Israel-Gaza Conflict

How many UN members will recognize Kosovo at the end of 2025?

102Annulled
103Annulled
104 or 105Annulled
and 5 others
condition

Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?

Resolved:No
28 forecasters
if yes
if no

US Iran War Before 2025?

0%
0%
Resolved:Annulled

US Iran War Before 2025?

0%
0%
Resolved:No
2
no comments0
Conditional Cup