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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will Kessler syndrome occur before 2050?

12%chance

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

Aug 2040

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

7%chance

When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?

09 Oct 2028

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

59.3%

What total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?

11.2 t

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

8
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1060
events

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8