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By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?

5.9%chance

When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?

26 Jan 2026

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

11 May 2029

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

58%chance

Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

25%chance

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

80%chance

Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

71%chance

Predicting Polygenic Selection for IQ

14
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

17%chance