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Metaculus Meta
When will one TeraFLOP/s cost <$1?
2029-05-17
15
18 comments
18
What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?
244
5
4 comments
4
When will PHP die?
2040-03-23
10
13 comments
13
What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?
1.6e17
41
43 comments
43
Foresight 2020
17
4 comments
4
Foresight 2020 Contest
Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?
47%
5
no comments
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When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?
2045-06-15
12
12 comments
12
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2032-10-28
171
470 comments
470
AGI Outcomes
When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?
2045-08-21
18
18 comments
18
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