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Will humans go extinct before 2100?
1%
73
304 comments
304
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
30%
10
16 comments
16
Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?
61%
5
8 comments
8
Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due "other risks"?
21%
3
10 comments
10
Ragnarรถk Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
19%
6
5 comments
5
Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years
26
10 comments
10
Research
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
2026
48.2%
2030
32%
2036
16%
9
2 comments
2
Future of AI
Securing a Flourishing Future by Forecasting Nuclear Risks
no comments
0
Programs
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight when it is next updated?
Resolved :
No
5
4 comments
4
In 2022, will the Future Fund give more than Open Philanthropy to longtermist causes?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
10
14 comments
14
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