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Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.2%chance

Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight when it is next updated?

resultNo

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

21%chance

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

75%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due "other risks"?

20.6%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

23.9%chance

In 2022, will the Future Fund give more than Open Philanthropy to longtermist causes?

Ambiguous

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Securing a Flourishing Future by Forecasting Nuclear Risks

no comments0