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If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?
20%
29
42 comments
42
If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?
80%
19
32 comments
32
Will the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030?
30%
2
7 comments
7
Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
2028
33%
2026
27%
2025
20%
1 other
8
21 comments
21
Effective Institutions Project
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: How Do Forecasters Fare by Their Own Call?
12
no comments
0
Research
Scores and medals: trade-offs and decisions (updated July 2024)
30
66 comments
66
By what date will an AI system demonstrate human-level accuracy in extracting data from all types of charts in documents?
2025-08-25
2
5 comments
5
Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra
25%
Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus
20%
OpenAI / GPT-5
9%
19
31 comments
31
Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?
1%
8
9 comments
9
In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?
Resolved :
Yes
40
21 comments
21
AI Demonstrations
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