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Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?

resultNo

Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?

resultNo

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

25%chance

Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?

resultNo

How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?

result64.128269M

What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?

result505.25k

AI Safety ∩ AI/DL Research

10
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

75%chance