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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
98%
218
147 comments
147
AGI Outcomes
Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?
36%
25
5 comments
5
By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?
5%
37
60 comments
60
Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?
84%
52
46 comments
46
What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?
6e14
9
17 comments
17
When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?
2026-02-22
17
19 comments
19
AI Demonstrations
Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?
94%
40
48 comments
48
AGI Outcomes
What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance in 2030?
72.6
17
22 comments
22
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
2029-04-21
33
38 comments
38
What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?
206
4
4 comments
4
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
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