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Metaculus Meta
New feature: Multi-modal predictions
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Metaculus Meta
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2028-04-13
195
430 comments
430
AI Progress Essay Contest
When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?
2026-05-13
10
8 comments
8
AI Technical Benchmarks
Lightning Round Tournament Question 2.3.0
5
15 comments
15
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?
13%
17
22 comments
22
AI Technical Benchmarks
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2032-10-28
171
470 comments
470
AGI Outcomes
What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?
91
4
no comments
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Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round
When will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event?
2071-04-08
7
13 comments
13
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
2027-05-01
29
18 comments
18
AI Demonstrations
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