Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
🗳️
US Elections
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?
83%
19
17 comments
17
Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?
5%
23
29 comments
29
When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?
2045-12-05
15
10 comments
10
The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec
no comments
0
AI Progress Essay Contest
Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?
Level 3
30%
Level 2
5%
Level 1
1%
10
9 comments
9
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?
83%
6
1 comment
1
Regulation of AI
Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?
8%
4
2 comments
2
AI Safety
Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?
1%
3
3 comments
3
AI Safety
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?
54%
4
9 comments
9
Regulation of AI
Will 85% of Chrome users have cookies deprecated before June 2026?
35%
4
7 comments
7
Load more