Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
🗳️
US Elections
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?
Jan-2026:
6.07M
6
33 comments
33
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?
2025:
6
19 comments
19
Forecasting Our World in Data
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
2023:
15
22 comments
22
Forecasting Our World in Data
Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?
Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e32
?
Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e30
?
Year: 2028 FLOPs: 10e28
?
2 others
2
3 comments
3
AI Technical Benchmarks
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH
15%
Amazon Web Services
5%
Microsoft Azure
3%
1 other
6
no comments
0
Chinese AI Chips
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
13%
Amazon Web Services
10%
Microsoft Azure
8%
1 other
6
no comments
0
Chinese AI Chips
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD
2%
Nvidia
2%
Google
1%
7
1 comment
1
Chinese AI Chips
How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?
Q1 (FY2025, ends Apr 2024):
13.9
6
1 comment
1
Chinese AI Chips
Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?
2025
75%
2026
75%
2027
75%
3 others
3 comments
3
What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?
End of 2024:
6
24 comments
24
Load more