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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
2035
28%
2030
20%
2025
1%
69
338 comments
338
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?
2035
45%
2030
29%
2025
1%
10
4 comments
4
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
if yes
if no
Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?
31%
31%
Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?
41%
41%
4
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
US Iran War Before 2025?
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
56%
56%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
30%
30%
5
1 comment
1
Israel-Gaza Conflict
condition
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
if yes
if no
US : China Number of ML Systems (2030)
2.34
US : China Number of ML Systems (2030)
3.07
2
2 comments
2
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?
1%
2
1 comment
1
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
25%
25%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
30%
30%
1
4 comments
4
The Taiwan Tinderbox