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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?

resultNo

Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before January 1, 2030?

54%chance

When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?

Feb 2031

When will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs?

25 Jan 2030

The Promise and Impact of the Next Generation of Weight Loss Drugs

19
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will GiveWell fund or recommend grants for the following interventions before January 1, 2027?

Community-Based Maternal and Neonatal80%
HPV Vaccination to Prevent Cervical Cancer70%
SMS Reminders for Vaccination69.8%
and 16 others

Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?

resultNo

When will the average five-year survival rate of all cancers exceed 95%?

May 2051