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Will a prediction market outperform Nate Silver's forecasts for the Super Tuesday primaries?

resultYes

Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months?

resultNo

Is the Metaculus prediction better than all users?

resultNo

Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?

resultNo

Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?

resultYes

What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?

Ambiguous

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on binary questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

1.04

When will the Metaculus Community break its worst prediction record?

Ambiguous

When will the Metaculus Community break its worst prediction record?

result15 Nov 2022 15:30

More Is Probably More — Forecasting Accuracy and Number of Forecasters on Metaculus

23
4 comments4