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Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?

resultNo

Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?

resultNo

When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?

result18 Nov 2022 05:00

War of Attrition: Updated Endgame Forecasts for the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

16
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

resultYes

Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

Russian ControlAnnulled
Ukrainian Controlresult: No

Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?

resultNo

Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?

resultNo

Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?

resultYes

Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?

resultNo