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Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?
1%
12
26 comments
26
A public prediction by Scott Alexander
no comments
0
Scott Alexander
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Kamala Harris (D)
54.7%
Donald Trump (R)
48%
Nikki Haley (R)
40%
17 others
20
66 comments
66
condition
2024 US election considered fraudulent?
if yes
if no
Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?
50%
50%
Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?
45%
45%
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
Will the next elected U.S. President be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man?
Resolved :
Yes
33
36 comments
36
Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee?
Resolved :
No
5
9 comments
9
Metaknowledge Experiment Part B: What is the Metaculus community's prediction about Bernie Sanders?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
6 comments
6
Will Clinton pick Elizabeth Warren as VP?
Resolved :
No
4
3 comments
3
How many US Senate seats will Democrats control after 2018 midterm elections?
Resolved :
45
17
19 comments
19
Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any *other* previous significant political office?
Resolved :
Yes
14
25 comments
25
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