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How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting
21
3 comments
3
Metaculus Journal
Will China impose a customs quarantine on Taiwan before the following years?
2035
43%
2030
29%
2
1 comment
1
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?
Resolved :
Yes
4
7 comments
7
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament
How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?
Resolved :
34.4k
1
10 comments
10
Will an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?
Resolved :
Annulled
2
4 comments
4
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?
Resolved :
Yes
8
16 comments
16
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?
Resolved :
Yes
4
8 comments
8
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?
Resolved :
164
1
no comments
0
China and Global Cooperation
What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?
Resolved :
38.9
4
2 comments
2
China and Global Cooperation
How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024?
Resolved :
1.75k
2
2 comments
2
AI in China
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