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Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
83%
11
6 comments
6
Effective Institutions Project
The Westinghouse Contingency
3
5 comments
5
AI Progress Essay Contest
AI Pathways Report
17
no comments
0
Research
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
5.32
3
3 comments
3
Business of AI
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?
71%
4
3 comments
3
Regulation of AI
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
19%
6
8 comments
8
Regulation of AI
condition
3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?
if yes
if no
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
2029-08-13
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
2030-04-18
7
no comments
0
Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?
70%
9
18 comments
18
Public Perception of AI
Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025?
OpenAI
5%
Anthropic
3%
Google DeepMind
1%
5
4 comments
4
AI Safety
Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities?
OpenAI
1%
Anthropic
1%
Google DeepMind
1%
12
15 comments
15
AI Safety
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